WEEKEND BOXOFFICE: 'DAN' SHOULD PROVIDE COMIC FOIL, BUT 'SAW IV' WILL BE A CUT ABOVE THE REST (FM, VAR, THR)

By Nancy Vialatte

Lionsgate is releasing “Saw IV” today, and, judging from the latest industry tracking, there is a certain ‘Jigsaw fatigue,’ reports Fantasy Moguls. The un-aided awareness for the latest chapter in the franchise is currently at 13% - much lower than Saw III’s 22%. That means roughly 41% less buzz and anticipation for Jigsaw year-over-year.

Although it won’t bomb, “Saw IV” is unlikely to reach $30 million this weekend and should end up in the $22M-$25M range. Fantasy Moguls believes this will lead to a domestic gross of $50M-$55M.

The other wide release this week is Buena Vista’s “Dan in Real Life,” which has been getting positive reviews thus far.

Mercifully, the presence of just two wide entrants could help restore a bit of sanity to a marketplace in which star-filled films have been crushed of late amid a surplus of openers and expansions. Among this weekend's notable expansions, "The Darjeeling Limited" heads north of 700 engagements after playing in 201 venues last weekend, when the Wes Anderson comedy managed a decent per-screen average in toting its 23-day cume to $3.9 million. (THR)

There’s no perfect comparable for Dan in Real Life. It’s a romantic comedy, but Carell and (Dane) Cook may help it skew a bit younger. In this week’s industry tracking, its 55% Total Aware is decidedly unimpressive, trailing mediocre July rom-com No Reservations, which had 61% Awareness. (FM)

The feel-good title will debut in 1,921 theaters and should be a wise counter-programming antidote given the other dark fare at the weekend box office. Sydney Lumet’s “Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead,” Alison Eastwood’s “Rails & Ties,” Jonathan Demme’s documentary “Jimmy Carter Man From Plains” and Anthony Hopkins’ “Slipstream” are also all in the frame.

The biggest audience for horror films is males younger than 25. "That's the core of our audience, (and) they have been tremendously loyal to the franchise," Lionsgate distribution president Steve Rothenberg told the Hollywood Reporter. "We expect them to come out in big numbers this weekend."

Meanwhile, "Dan," will skew considerably older than "Saw" and is expected to attract good date-crowd business with a projected $10M-$13M take.

"It's about as good a counter-programming kind of film that anybody can make," Disney distribution president Chuck Viane told THR. "What I think has been wrong in the market in recent weeks has been the fact that too many of the movies have all been the same movie, so to speak, all being R-rated and such."