LOWER-THAN-EXPECTED OPENING-DAY 'CASPIAN' FIGURES SHRINK WEEKEND PROJECTIONS
By Steve Mason
Walden Media’s “The Narnia Chronicles: Prince Caspian” (Disney) has failed to match the $23 million opening day of 2005’s "The Lion, the Witch & the Wardrobe, managing only $19.3 million on Friday. The second of a potential seven films based on the C.S. Lewis Christian-themed Narnia novels will likely finish the weekend with an estimated $55 million. If the number holds, that will be 22% less than the first Narnia installment.
Theater owners and most of the so-called box office experts had been looking for an $80 million+ opening weekend, and I called for $74 million-$77 million, so “Prince Caspian” represents a distinct disappointment.
Industry tracking had pointed toward a stronger opening, and execs from competing studios have theories about why the new Narnia has opened softer than expected. Despite generally positive reviews (69% “Fresh” on Rotten Tomatoes), many critics mentioned that the movie is darker than the first with some extended battle sequences, which may be a contributing factor. Also, one source tells me that the faith-based marketing effort was less effective this time around.
Reclusive billionaire Phillip Anschutz is the financial and driving force behind the Narnia films. Anschutz, worth at least $5 billion, began as an oilman before moving on to railroads and telecommunications. He has invested heavily in sports and entertainment over the last decade.
His Anschutz Entertainment Group now owns more sports teams and events than any other company in the world, and AEG also owns stadiums and arenas such as the Staples Center in Los Angeles, the Nokia Theatre in Times Square and the O2 in London.
The investor also bought up troubled movie theater chains United Artists, Edwards Cinemas and Regal Cinemas, and he now controls more movie screens than any other company. Before jumping into filmmaking six years ago, he told an associate that he wanted to be "doing something significant in American Christianity."
The next chapter of “The Chronicles of Narnia,” subtitled “Voyage of the Dawn Treader,” is already in production with director Michael Apted at the helm. “Narnia 3” is set for release May 7, 2010, and if Walden Media follows with another sequel every two years, the franchise-ender, “The Last Battle,” would hit theatres in 2018. Prince Caspian’s weaker-than-expected opening potentially puts this strategy in question.
Almost as surprising as “Caspian’s” slow start is the spectacular third weekend performance of “Iron Man” (Paramount). Marvel’s first self-produced, self-financed feature seized another $8.65 million Friday as the movie soared past $200 million. That will likely translate to a phenomenal $32 million for the three-day period, representing just a 35% drop from last weekend. Iron Million is now a solid bet to reach $300 million domestic.
The Cameron Diaz/Ashton Kutcher comedy “What Happens in Vegas” (Fox) added an estimated $4.6 million Friday, and it will be a solid No. 3 for the weekend with $13.75 million or so. That is an excellent performance, down just 32% from its opening weekend, for a new cume of $40.2 million.
“Speed Racer” (Warner Bros.) slowed to $2 million on its second Friday, and it will manage only an estimated $8 million for the Friday-Sunday frame, down 57% from last weekend. The Wachowski brothers’ anime-inspired epic will have banked only $30.2 million domestic by Monday morning. Meanwhile, Sony’s “Made of Honor” is No. 5 with $1.65 million Friday and a likely $5.3 million for the three-day period. The Patrick Dempsey vehicle will be just shy of $35 million domestic by the end of the weekend.
Joachim Trier’s “Reprise” (Miramax) will probably be the top per-theater performer of the weekend. The Norwegian arthouse offering, already a winner of three Amanda Awards including Best Picture, should finish the weekend with a $13,300 per-theater-average on in three locations, just ahead of “Prince Caspian,” which will likely average $13,000 at each of its 3,929 locations.
