The CES, 'Avatar' & 3D: Talk about harmonic convergence (HWT)
By R. Kinsey Lowe
Back in August, Wiretap's R. Kinsey Lowe wrote about James Cameron's "Avatar" as a game-changer, not only for theatrical features, but for TV. Today, as the Consumer Electronics Show opens in Las Vegas, he's back with a follow-up on the future of 3D.
Talk about a harmonic convergence. Timing of the phenomenal success of James Cameron's 3D sci-fi epic "Avatar" couldn't be better for the opening of the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas, where the most immediate attention will be focused on 3D. There will be lots of other gadgets designed to dazzle, of course, but this year's biggest deal is 3D.
Most TV manufacturers by the time you are reading this will have announced new 3D television models and compatible Blu-Ray DVD players.
On the content side, ESPN has already announced plans to broadcast World Cup soccer and NBA games on a new network starting in June, and Discovery, Imax and Sony leaked details of their partnership on a 3D network in advance of their announcement Wednesday. DirecTV is also planning to launch a pair of 3D channels and a 3D on-demand service that was also expected to be announced at CES, which runs Jan. 7-10. (MarketSaw has a good initial lineup of 3D channels to come.)
"The stars are aligning to make 2010 the launch year of 3D," LG exec John Taylor told the New York Times. "It's still just in its infancy, but when there is a sufficient amount of content available - and lots of people are working on this - there will be a true tipping point for consumers."
Panasonic, which was heavily involved in the technology behind "Avatar," also has a commanding presence at CES and has partnered with DirecTV for the launch of the satcaster's three networks in June. Panasonic VP Peter M. Fannon describes the new sets as "totally different than what one had seen over the last 20 to 30 years."
Studio home entertainment division execs privately concur, and at some point you can expect a big marketing push when "Avatar" is released on Blu-Ray 3D, and other titles such as Disney/Pixar and DreamWorks animated movies will follow. Neither "Avatar" nor Disney/Pixar movies will be released to the home market initially in 3D versions.
The 3D technology's highest-profile cheerleader, DreamWorks Animation CEO Jeffrey Katzenberg, showed up Wednesday to announce the studio's release of its worldwide hit "Monsters vs. Aliens" as a 3D Blu-Ray disc created by Technicolor in an exclusive tie-in with Samsung, which earlier in this week had shown off new, thin LED 3D sets.
Sony's Howard Stringer also was on hand Wednesday to unveil the conglomerate's line of HD 3D televisions, 38 models in all.
As a maker of TVs, Blu-Ray players as well as high-resolution 4K projectors, 3D cameras and even Imageworks that does 3D work for other studios, Sony is well-positioned to take advantage of the potential, but Stringer conceded "we won't know for a little while" when the technology will hit its stride economically.
Amid all the hoopla, it's important to remember that the planned 3D networks represent a sort of ground-floor from which to build, because even consumers who have upgraded to wider-screen HDTVs won't be able to watch yet. (Remember last year's clumsy switch to from analog to digital broadcasting?)
Analysts believe most 3D content initially will come via Blu-Ray discs rather than from television networks, because they simply don't have the necessary infrastructure, let alone the content.
Proponents of 3D are also betting that by the time some of these products hit the market, the economy will have at least begun to show stronger signs of recovery. People who are out of work, remain underemployed or lost/might lose their homes to foreclosure aren't likely to splurge on another, more expensive new TV set.
Toshiba's brand new Cell TV, with 143 times the processing power of current TVs and extensive content flexibility, are expected to cost as much as $10,000 when the first models hit US stores this fall.
Probably no more than 2% of the 35 million flat-screen TVs that will be sold this year will be capable of showing 3D, iSuppli Corp. analyst Riddhi Patel told the Wall Street Journal.
Recent agreement on a 3D standard for Blu-Ray represented significant progress, but similar agreement is still pending on streamlining broadcast technology standards.
Even for movie theaters, there are multiple projection standards: The most common (so far), RealD, uses a single digital projector equipped with an extra filter that separates the images projected onto a silvered screen that viewers watch through what are known as "passive" polarized glasses. Dolby's system uses a different kind of single-projector, color-filtered image separation that are recombined for viewers through special passive, tinted glasses. Dolby 3D does not require a silvered screen. XpanD uses two separate, synchronized digital projectors and "active" LCD shuttered, polarized glasses that reveal distinct, separate images to each eye (Cinerama Dome at Arclight in Hollywood uses this system).
Sony's 4K high-definition single-projector system uses a specially modified version of RealD optics that produce two separate 2K images. Regular digital projectors are usually 2K; separated 3D images in these systems lose some of their illumination and resolution.
Imax's proprietary 3D imagery uses specialized post-production and high-resolution dual projectors as well as optimized sound and auditorium architecture.
Returning to 3D prospects in homes, PC-based gaming already allows users to participate in 3D. For now, the experience is limited to PCs with special graphics circuit-cards and active LCD glasses. Among consoles, Sony's Playstation 3 is expected to follow suit quickly (thanks to that Blu-Ray standard) and eventually Microsoft's X-Box. Many games are already rendered in 3D in anticipation of the upgrade.
Interestingly, Apple applied for a patent on a mobile 3D user interface that permits interacting with objects from different perspectives - viewed from different angles or positions in a room - without any external hardware.
Apple's much-predicted announcement of some sort of tablet device later this month may reveal more about this, because apparently knowledgeable gossips have said the user interface will be unlike anything seen so far. X-Box 360, for example allows Wii-like user participation but without any additional hardware or external sensors.
Seeking to steal a bit of Apple's thunder in advance of the rival's Jan. 27 announcement, Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer touted a new tablet-style Windows PC made by HP that runs Windows 7 and uses touch-screen technology rather than a keyboard.
The infectious enthusiasm of a hyperbolic event like CES makes 3D seem less like a big gamble. Even though fewer than 1 million of the roughly 115 million TV homes in the U.S. currently have a 3D-capable set, the Consumer Electronics Association predicts that about 4.3 million 3D-compatible sets will be sold in 2010 and that 3D TVs will account for at least 25% of sales by 2013, according to estimates in the Los Angeles Times.
As with HDTV, technology and available hardware is expected to be relatively expensive and about a decade ahead of the curve. And by that time, tech advances are expected to allow feature-length presentation of 3D without those special glasses - and a whole new range of products to buy.
Previously on Wiretap: The Future of 3D.
(This report was culled from a variety of sources including the New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Reuters, Los Angeles Times, ArsTechnica, CNet, Engadget and Wired as well as independent research and reporting.)
