THE SEASON: As critics ramp up, dark horses are at the gate
By Pete Hammond
As critics begin to vote, the stakes are clearly high when Clint Eastwood seems to be getting out even more than Britney Spears this week. With his stealth last minute entry, “Letters From Iwo Jima” taking flight and reviving memories of his “Million Dollar Baby” December attack in 2004, Clint gladhanded LA and Broadcast film critics at a Friday night Pacific Design Center screening and was back there Tuesday joining star Ken Watanabe for a USA Today interview and then a SAG Nom Comm Q&A session. The actors gave both thunderous standing ovations.
A Hollywood Foreign Press conference went well beyond the scheduled time and by week’s end with the National Board of Review’s Best Picture award in hand, Clint was off to New York for the junket. Screener DVDs of “Iwo Jima,” his all-Japanese language companion film to disappearing October release “Flags Of Our Fathers” sent out by Paramount beat (by a day) the latter film to voters’ doorsteps. Interestingly a Warner Bros. awards consultant admitted the film, originally announced as a February 9th release “wasn’t even in my universe three weeks ago” but, the studio is obviously making up for lost time even as it has its world premiere engagements in Japan starting this Saturday followed by a slow LA and NY rollout on December 20th. Internet prognosticators are now fighting over who predicted “Iwo Jima” would be a Best Picture nominee first, a development that’s enough to give a Dreamgirl nightmares.
Meanwhile Tuesday was a big day as Clint, and later “Good German” star George Clooney charmed SAG voters, Robert DeNiro’s two hour and forty minute CIA epic was shown to press and 20th Century Fox threw its second big party in as many weeks this time honoring “Devil Wears Prada” contender Meryl Streep who held court at co-chair Tom Rothman’s house where many guests seemed startled to be greeted by Tom Cruise (he will be working with Streep and Robert Redford in UA’s “Lamb For Lions”). The newlywed didn’t venture far from the front door, even bear hugging arriving guest Forest Whitaker just hours before ‘The Last King’ would be named the NBR’s Best Actor winner. Last week Fox partied Borat, this week Meryl and next week …. Flicka? Well probably not, but even if THAT dark horse isn’t in the running, a few others are.
As the race is about to get further definition with Broadcast, LA and NY critics groups along with the HFPA announcing winners and nominees in the next few days this is a good time to highlight chances of long-shot contenders in key categories, the names you probably won’t be hearing in the next week but which, if history has taught us anything, could turn up on Oscar-nom day and surprise everyone.
The Academy loves to go its own way. Who ever thought “Whale Rider” Keisha Castle-Hughes would show up as a Best Actress nominee in 2003 or that “In America’s” Djimon Hounsou had a shot as a Supporting actor the same year? What about those long- shot wins for Jim Broadbent, Marcia Gay Harden, Marisa Tomei and James Coburn (he was shut out of Globe contention the same year as “The Thin Red Line” and “American History X” star Edward Norton, yet all turned up on Oscar’s list). Everyone knew eventual winner Dianne Wiest would be nominated for “Bullets Over Broadway” in 1994, but the same movie’s Jennifer Tilly too? Veteran Robert Forster from “Jackie Brown” shocked pundits when his was the first name read at the 1997 nomination announcements. The list of dark horse winners and nominees is as long as the list of obvious victors.
Here are some deserving long shots. You heard it here first if they get nominated. If not just use this column to line your birdcage.
BEST PICTURE:
Could one of the much touted five-pack of “Dreamgirls,” “The Departed,” “The Queen,” “Little Miss Sunshine” and “Flags Of Iwo Jima” (No typo – pick your own Clint) falter in favor of a darker horse like “Babel” or “Little Children?” Sure. Even “Borat” wouldn’t be a shocker. But what about Al Gore? “An Inconvenient Truth” is a lock for Best Doc recognition, but could the liberal-leaning socially-conscious Academy find love for the first time for a doc by putting it into the BIG race? The same thinking failed for Michael Moore’s “Fahrenheit 9/11,” but the Academy could REALLY make news and heat up the race with this brand of Global Warming.
BEST ACTOR:
Looks like Peter O’Toole, Forest Whitaker, Will Smith, Ken Watanabe and Leonardo DiCaprio have the big Mo but what if one falls out or Leo cancels himself out between “Departed” and “Diamond?” Don’t laugh, but could the actors branch actually bond with…..uh Bond? “Casino Royale” has been royally received by members we have talked to and Daniel Craig is an actor’s actor. Could he become the first Bond to be invited to have his Martini shaken but not stirred at the Kodak lobby bar?
BEST ACTRESS:
Sure Helen Mirren, Judi Dench, Penelope Cruz , Kate Winslet and Cate Blanchett are all favorites for noms, but come on, no Americans? Could enough actors in the Academy ignore Dreamworks’ strategy and decide Jennifer Hudson is really the STAR of “Dreamgirls?” It’s happened before. A sure thing for Best Supporting is a viable long shot in this category as well.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
The aforementioned Jennifer Hudson leads every pundit’s list which also includes likely love for Cate Blanchett in “Notes On A Scandal” plus her “Babel” international co-stars Adriana Barazza and Rinko Kikuchi, ray of Sunshine Abigail Breslin, “Little Children’s” Phyllis Sommerville and “The Departed’s” Vera Farmiga among many others. But, if enough voters actually watch “The Devil Wears Prada” again or even for the first time, Streep’s tortured neurotic assistant played by English breakthrough star Emily Blunt is the most deserving nominee. She is comic perfection and the definition of what ‘supporting’ is all about. Even with no Oscar nomination she’s Hollywood’s next big thing with no less than five major movies lined up since “Prada” came out in June.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
With so many big names in the lower category this year: Nicholson, Pitt, Murphy, Arkin, Affleck, not to mention highly touted performances from “The Queen’s” Michael Sheen, “Little Children’s” Jackie Earle Haley, “The Departed’s” Mark Wahlberg and many more there really is NO room at the Inn but if voters get a chance to see a couple of late entries, both called Michael, they may be duly impressed. Two time winner Michael Caine in “Childen Of Men” and never- nominated journeyman thesp Michael Gambon as a spy who knows too much in “The Good Shepherd” are the kind of roles played by veterans that the actors branch love to anoint.
BEST DIRECTOR:
Bill Condon, Martin Scorsese, Stephen Frears, Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Pedro Almodovar, Todd Field, Guillermo Del Toro, Oliver Stone and Paul Greengrass. There could be sentiment for the late Robert Altman as well for “A Prairie Home Companion.” Whoops we left off two more, Clint Eastwood and Clint Eastwood. He’s certain to be nominated for one, either “Flags” or “Iwo Jima,” with the latter most likely - as of this week at least. But he could be nominated for BOTH.
That double whammy is the REAL dark horse proposition as we end with questions about Clint, same place we started, as The Season starts counting votes.
