Will 'Ghost Rider' kill Oscar season?

By Tom Tapp

What if the profit motive behind Oscar season went bust?

It's long been thought that the period from January-April was a box office wasteland, and the Oscars provided a nice way to boost numbers of the modest holdovers from October-December. But the success of recent popcorn pictures such as "Ghost Rider," "Wild Hogs" and "300" may call this equation into question.

For instance, as Warner Bros. prepared to release "Million Dollar Baby" in December of 2004, the previously unheralded film was becoming surprisingly well-received. As momentum built on the picture, Warners spent lavishly touting the film for awards consideration. In the end, the $30 million-budgeted effort took home four Oscars, including Best Picture. It also did $216 million worldwide.

That's a nice business. But what if there were a better business?

The weekend "Baby" went wide it did $12 million. It took over six months to get to $200 million worldwide. "Ghost Rider," on the other hand, opened this February during prime time for Oscar marketers to $45 million. That's the second-biggest President's Day opening ever. It has already, in less than six weeks, taken in nearly $200 million worldwide.

And it's not an isolated case.

Recently, 'Wild Hogs" had the 3rd biggest March opening ever at $39 million. It has done just over $100 million worldwide in three weeks. And '300' is the biggest R-rated opener ever in March, with $140 million in two weeks.

Of course there are greater budgets and marketing costs associated with popcorn fare. But as we all know, tentpoles are the lifeblood of every studio because when they hit, they really hit; there's no slow-build to success.

As Peter Bart said in a column last week about the dissonance between critical and popular tastes:

From a marketing standpoint, we are reminded that February and March are oddly underrated by the studios. Every "tentpole" movie seemingly has to be released within the eight week May-June corridor of self-destruction. Yet clearly a lot of filmgoers would like to be entertained in the post-Oscar period as well, and they deserve better than they are getting.

What this means for Oscar season remains to be seen. Certainly, there will always be prestige films that are given vanity campaigns. But with an approaching summer which, in May alone, is stacked with the likes of "Shrek, the Third," "Spider-Man 3" and "Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End," studios may begin looking creatively at Oscar season as a time to release tentpoles and increase profitabilty.

It's certainly an easier game than hoping you'll have another "Million Dollar Baby" come along.