KATZENBERG BACKPEDALS ON 'SHREK' B.O. BLUSTER: "I DON'T EXPECT US TO SET ANY RECORDS" (REU, 101)

By Tom Tapp

After telling a Bank of America conference in March that "Shrek 3" would win the battle of the blockbusters this summer, the DreamWorks Animation topper is backpedaling.

Noting that, unlike "Spider-Man" and "Pirates," "Shrek" is only 81 minutes long, Katzenberg had said the difference would be made by "multiple viewings."

Katzenberg:

"We are the only family film, the only PG-rated movie and we are 81 minutes long," he says. "That pretty much means we are going to tend to get one-and-a-half to two shows for every one of theirs because they are longer films."

Today, however, Katzenberg told Reuters, "I hope we have a very, very good weekend, but I don't expect us to set any records."

Seemingly afraid of comparisons to "Spider-Man's" $151 million opening weekend, he said weekends 2 and 3 would be very important to "Shrek," because the drop off would be much less than "Spidey's" 60% fall.

"We should have this (box office) conversation around June 4 or June 5," Katzenberg said. He may have a point, according to one prognosticator.

Theater owner and B.O. columnist Steve Mason says "Shrek" will "almost certainly open with $100 million, and it should hold up far better than SM3."

Mason:

My industry sources are working with a 2.3 or 2.4 multiple for Spider-Man 3: opening weekend of $151 million times 2.3 or 2.4, for a total domestic gross in the $347 million to $382 million range. The multiple for Shrek 2 was 4. If that holds for the third in the series, this could be a $400 million windfall for Dreamworks.