Weekend B.O.: How much will 'Pirates' sink?

By Ken-Ali

In a box office weekend whose fervor and expectations fall considerably short of the previous months' sequel frenzy, three releases enter the fray.

Universal's "Knocked Up" is the most prominent entry, according to Variety. Pic will bow in 2,873 locations, 34% fewer than the number at which "Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End" opened last weekend.

Variety:

Fully financed by U for a reported $30 million, pic is on track to open in the low $20 millions, though the studio says it will be pleased with anything in the high teens, especially given the legs potential. ("Virgin" opened to $21.4 million in late August 2005 but went on to hit $109 million domestically.)

Theater owner and B.O. prognosticator Steve Mason thinks those numbers are low, saying that, while "Knocked Up" won't beat "Pirates," their numbers "might be closer than anyone expects."

Mason:

Disney has got the "spin machine" operating at warp speed in an effort to avoid the perception that Pirates: AWE is a disappointment. The fact is, however, that Captain Jack is sinking. Here are the Monday thru Wednesday grosses for Pirates this week:

Tuesday -- $7.78 million, down 69 percent

Wednesday -- $6.4 million, down 18 percent

Thursday -- $6.36 million, down 1 percent

But, despite a phenomenal 92% Fresh rating at RottenTomatoes, "Knocked Up" also has problems.

Mason:

Strangely, the tracking looks a little soft. I'm told that Un-Aided Awareness for Knocked Up, an excellent measure of buzz and anticipation, is in the single digits and that its Total Aware number is in the 70s. Overall Definite Interest is in the 30s and, although Definite Interest with Under 25s is stronger, something isn't quite right with the way this film is being marketed.

As for the rest of the field, MGM's "Mr. Brooks," a crime drama about the destructive path of a violent serial killer (Kevin Costner), debuts in 2,453 theaters this weekend, according to The Hollywood Reporter. The R-rated feature, co-starring William Hurt and Demi Moore and directed by Bruce A. Evans, is expected to arrive at the boxoffice in the $10 million range.

The Hollywood Reporter handicaps the top four:

Overall, Buena Vista Pictures' "Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End" will hold on to the top spot, followed by Paramount Pictures' "Shrek the Third" from DreamWorks Animation. The new wide opener "Knocked Up" from Universal Pictures most likely will finish third, ahead of Sony Pictures' "Spider-Man 3."

Variety:

Historically, the weekend after Memorial Day is not a high-water mark for summer, but more of a pause before the July Fourth assault. In 2004, "Harry Potter 3" set the record for the frame, collecting $93 million.

THR reminds us "It will be a brief respite, however, as Warner Bros. Pictures' 'Ocean's Thirteen' hits theaters June 8."

Related Links

Box Office Could Get 'Knocked Up' (VAR)
Calmer Waters In Sequels' Wake (THR)
'Pirates' Sinking?; 'Knocked Up' Should Score a Strong 2nd-place Finish; 'Mr. Brooks' in Single Digits (FM)