BO: TOO MUCH OF A GOOD THING? ONE EXEC SAYS "THIS WILL BE THE WEEKEND OF THE BLOODBATH" (VAR)

By Nancy Vialatte

Too much of a good thing at the summer box office is leaving studios in an unusual predicament, says today's Variety. With pictures holding so well and such a crowded field of new entrants, bookings are being fiercely fought for. The next three weekends will be "brutal," says the trade. This weekend will see the bow of the well-reviewed "The Bourne Ultimatum" along with live-action kid pic "Underdog" and several other wide releases. Heading into its second frame, "The Simpsons Movie" is expected to come in behind "Bourne." Further, this "title wave" seems to disprove the dire predictions made last year by such media as the New York Times and Los Angeles Times that box office was dead.

As for screen space, generally, by this time in the season, the release sked for high-profile pics begins to slow down. Not so this year. Next weekend, New Line bows "Rush Hour 3," followed by Sony's release of raunchy laffer "Superbad" on Aug. 17. There's also a slew of other releases dated for early August. It wouldn't matter if the July crop of films weren't holding so well, but Fox's "Live Free or Die Hard" and Disney-Pixar's "Ratatouille" are still solid.

"Ratatouille" will lose 994 theaters this weekend for a total run count of 1,940 locations - which Variety says is a hard hit to take considering the rodent is still cooking with audiences. Losing runs could make it more difficult for Disney to cross the magical $200 million mark at the box office - the cume now stands at more than $183 million.

"Live Free," which dropped 21% in its fifth frame for a take of $5.6 million, is losing 849 screens this weekend, leaving it with 1,422 runs. Cume is more than $127 million. "Phoenix" is losing around 844 locations for a new run count of 3,161. Newer films like "Hairspray" and "I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry" also are feeling the pinch.

"It's a dogfight. We lost a lot of second screens for 'Hairspray' that we probably would have held if the marketplace wasn't what it was," New Line prexy of distribution David Tuckerman told Variety.

By late June, many were bemoaning a lackluster summer box office. That's all changed. Overall, the summer sesh is now running 8% above a year ago in terms of domestic box office receipts, and 3% above the same frame in 2004 -- the best year on record.

"This is the biggest, most crowded and crazy summer I've ever seen. There are more pictures, and more films holding. It's really created the perfect storm," said Picturehouse's Bob Berney, who opens Jennifer Lopez and Marc Anthony's "El Cantante" in 542 theaters today. "The good news is that the market will indeed expand when people are happy with their moviegoing choices," Berney said.

While early summer tentpoles "Spider-Man 3" and "Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End" saw steep declines, July tentpoles "Transformers" and "Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix" have held well, along with "Ratatouille" and "Die Hard." The run on the box office doesn't end there. Fox's "The Simpsons Movie" far exceeded expectations in its opening, while New Line's "Hairspray" is showing signs of being able to cross the $100 million mark. This week, the campy musical defied naysayers by coming in at No. 2 behind "Simpsons" at the box office. "Simpsons" is playing in 3,926 locations this weekend, four more than last weekend.

If an expanded box office is the silver lining, the cloud is that films that continue to draw auds will begin to see dramatic drops in their runs beginning this weekend. There's just no way around it given a finite number of screens.

"This will be the weekend of the bloodbath," one studio distribution exec said.

"We are all struggling because there are so many films," Universal prexy of distribution Nikki Rocco said.

August could prove especially frustrating since the month can often be a dumping ground. Exhibs are almost always obliged to give a film a wide opening to preserve existing relationships, even if a holdover would likely make more money than a new entry.

"For the three next weekends, you are going to have four or five pictures hit the market. No matter whether they are good or bad, the exhibition community is out there trying to get everything in, hoping for one more miracle," one distrib honcho told Variety.

BO: TOO MUCH OF A GOOD THING? ONE EXEC SAYS "THIS WILL BE THE WEEKEND OF THE BLOODBATH" (VAR)

By Nancy Vialatte

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