WEEKEND BOX OFFICE: 'IRON MAN' SHOULD TAKE $43-$46M, 'SPEED' $30M

By Steve Mason

"Iron Man" (Paramount) will almost certainly comfortably win a 2nd consecutive weekend at the box office as "Speed Racer" (Warner Bros) struggles to reach $30M. I have not been able to find a studio exec who believes that the Wachowski Brothers� adaptation of the late 60�s anime cartoon classic will be able to outrun its bad industry tracking and generally negative reviews (only 29% Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes as of Wednesday night).

A source just filled me in on the latest tracking, and Awareness for "Speed Racer" is fine at 90%, but Definite Interest is hovering around 30% and its First Choice score is stuck at 16%, behind Fox�s "What Happens in Vegas at 18%." In fact just 19% of young males name "Speed Racer" as their First Choice this weekend, and the Ashton Kutcher/Cameron Diaz comedy is a close 2nd in that demo with 16%.

One well-placed exec at a competing studio pointed out something that should be especially disturbing to Warner Bros. When moviegoers were asked about their First Choice from a list of films, including titles already in release, those scheduled to open Friday and ones that are due through May 30, only 5% of respondents named "Speed Racer." Seven movies scored better including "Indiana Jones" at 27%, "Iron Man" at 23% and Narnia at 14%. Even last month�s Baby Mama has a stronger number with 7%.

The 2nd weekend of May was described to me as a �death slot� on the release schedule. Back in in 2006, Warner Bros flopped with "Poseidon," which opened with only $22.1M on this same weekend despite a reported $160M budget. The good news for Warner Bros is that "Speed Racer" has been made for something closer to $100M.

As I reported earlier this week, Paramount has been watching Speed Racer tracking closely. They saw that �there was blood in the water,� and they ramped up spending on ad buys for Iron Man. That should drive the 2nd weekend gross for the first Marvel Studios film to $43M-$46M, representing a respectable drop in the 53%-56% range.

The other major wide release opening this Friday is the PG-13-rated What Happens in Vegas. With Kutcher and Diaz on the marquee, this comedy has excellent female appeal. Definite Interest with Females Under 25 is at 48% and First Choice with young females is 20%. Vegas should reach something in the $20M-$23M range, good for 3rd place behind the family-oriented Speed Racer.

As I detailed in a story I titled "A Mamet Miscalculation,", Sony Classics is rolling out "Redbelt" on 1,000 screens, and it would have been far-better-served by a traditional platform release on the arthouse circuit. Instead, the Chiwetal Ejiofor extreme fighting/ martial arts drama is unlikely to top $3M.

FINAL BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS FOR MAY 9-11

1. Iron Man (Paramount) - $45M

2. Speed Racer (Warner Bros) - $30M

3. What Happens in Vegas (Fox) - $21M

4. Made of Honor (Sony) - $8.5M

5. Forgetting Sarah Marshall (Universal) - $3.5M

6. Harold & Kumar Escape From Guantanamo (Warner Bros) - $3.4M

7. Redbelt (Sony Classics) - $2.7M

8. The Forbidden Kingdom (Lionsgate) - $2.1M

9. Nim�s Island (Fox) - $1.5M

10. Prom Night (Sony) - $1.2M