'CASPIAN' PUTS 2ND NARNIA CHAPTER ON TRACK FOR $74M-$77M WEEKEND

By Steve Mason

There is no mystery about which film will win the weekend. It is more a question of how high "The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian" can fly.

On Sunday, I was very comfortable forecasting $60 million-$70 million based on industry tracking. The original franchise-starter "The Lion, the Witch & the Wardrobe" reached $65.5 million on its opening weekend back in December 2005, and the film has gained popularity in the home video market. The Christian themes in the C.S. Lewis "Chronicles of Narnia" make this the ultimate family-friendly movie, clearly supported by an aggressive faith-based marketing campaign.

The latest industry tracking for the Disney-distributed "Prince Caspian" still trails the performance of last Summer's "Harry Potter & the Order of the Phoenix," so it seems unlikely that the new Narnia chapter will top "HP5's"$77.1 million opening last July.

One studio exec pointed out to me a bit of a wild card in the tracking. "Prince Caspian" is likely to perform very well at inner city locations. Definite Interest is at 50 percent with African American moviegoers compared to the pre-opening 35 percent of the Potter movie.

Reviews are coming in very positive for Walden Media's new Narnia sequel with an 85 percent "fresh" score at Rotten Tomatoes as of Wednesday night, and the franchise's core fans will definitely be satisfied.

With Iron Man dipping to a sub-$30 millionn weekend and "Speed Racer" (Warner Bros.) mostly a non-factor, "Prince Caspian" is in a nice spot. I am calling for a $74 million-$77 million opening weekend and eventually $250 million-plus domestic, and the odds increase dramatically that Walden Media, funded by Christian billionaire Phillip Anschutz, will begin thinking about five more Narnia films, culminating with "The Last Battle," possibly in the Summer of 2018.