'CRYSTAL SKULL' FEVER AT B.O.: 5-DAY TALLY COULD HIT $177M-$187M

By Steve Mason

"Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull" (Paramount) is about to begin a monumental Memorial Day weekend run. The film opened at 12:01 a.m. at thousands of locations across America. Officially, Paramount has secured 4,260 playdates for the Lucasfilm production, and the actual screen count will be something just over 9,500. a.m.

The generally well-reviewed sequel will perform extraordinarily well in after-midnight shows. As of 8 p.m. Wednesday, high-grossing Arclight Theatres in Hollywood had 9 sold-out shows, starting at 12:01 a.m. 12:15 a.m., 12:16 a.m., 12:17 a.m., 12:30 a.m., 12:31 a.m., 12:32 a.m., 12:45 a.m. and 12:46 a.m.77 That is unprecedented.

Paramount's "Transformers opened at 8 p.m. on a Monday night last Summer, and it scored an amazing $8.8 million. It is quite possible that the first Indiana Jones movie in 19 years could deliver $3 million-$4 million in post-midnight business (which will be added to its opening day take).

Industry tracking for "Indy 4" is in the stratosphere. There are people who believe that $190 million is possible for the fived-day Thursday-Monday. That strikes me as high, but I am raising my four-day and five-day predictions.

Last year, the Top 10 movies generated $244 million over the four-day Memorial Day weekend. That included $139.8 million for "Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End, $67 million for "Shrek the Third" and $18.1 million for "Spider-Man 3."

If we work backward, I expect "The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian" (Disney) to add an estimated $38 million over the upcoming four-day and "Iron Man" (Paramount) should be good for another $27 million or so. With those three holdover estimates plugged into the rest of the top 10 over the long weekend, that should account for about $99 million. If overall business is merely flat year-over-year, that would represent a $145 million piece of the pie left for Indy.

The bottom line is that Steven Spielberg and George Lucas have created a four-quadrant juggernaut. There is a nostalgia factor here with parents looking forward to introducing kids to Harrison Ford's iconic character. The PG-13 rating makes "Crystal Skull" very family friendly. And Shia LeBeouf is a hit with under-25s, riding the success of "Disturbia" and "Transformers."

With updated stats, I now believe that "Indiana Jones" has a real shot at $46 million-$48 million for opening day. That will take some of the steam out of the weekend, but it's possible that "IJ4" will grab something in the $35 million$37 million range on Friday, get a family audience surge to $37 million-$39 million on Saturday, dip back to the $35 million-$37 million range on Sunday, and wrap up the holiday weekend with $24 million-$26 million on Memorial Day Monday.

For the four-day Friday-Monday Memorial Day frame, I am calling for $131 million-$139 million. Because of the Thursday opening, "Crystal Skull" will likely fall short of the all-time Memorial Day weekend record of $139.8 million set by "Pirates 3" last year. The five-day, however, will be in the $177 million-$187 million range, making it the biggest five-day opening in movie history. That record is currently held by George Lucas' "Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith" at $172.8 million, so the title of five-day champ will stay in the LucasFilm family.

Another interesting wrinkle is that Paramount could account for as much as 70% of the total box office this long weekend. It is a history-making year for the Melrose gang with "Kung Fu Panda," Mike Myers' "Love Guru" and the much buzzed-about August release "Tropic Thunder" still due this Summer.