'SATC': COULD BECOME THE ALL-TIME #1 OPENING FOR A FEATURE STARRING A 40+ WOMAN

By Steve Mason

Everyone in Hollywood is asking an intriguing question this week. "How high can 'Sex and the City' go?" After all, the average red-blooded American male will have to be dragged into the theater to see Carrie Bradshaw and friends (although, gay men will likely be among the movie's early attendees).

According to industry tracking relayed to me, an astounding number of American women have a weekend appointment to see these four 40+ actresses in their first big screen adventure.

The summer blockbuster season has traditionally been devoted to major tentpole movies featuring superheroes, explosions and animated animals, but that may be changing. Fox scored big with "The Devil Wears Prada in 2006," proving that there is room at the multiplex for a film with pure female appeal.

"Prada" opened to a $27.5 million weekend on its way to a $124.75 million domestic cume. Then last summer, New Line grabbed an almost identical $27.47 million with the opening weekend of the female-skewing "Hairspray," translating to $118.87 million domestic.

With all of that said, it is amazing that a movie, featuring 3 actresses in their 40s (and one in her 50s), is considered a big summer title, but thanks to HBO, it is happening.

Increasingly, the best roles for women 40+ are on television. Kyra Sedgewick ("The Closer"), Glenn Close ("Damages"), Holly Hunter ("Saving Grace"), Edie Falco ("The Sopranos"), Vanessa Williams ("Ugly Betty") and Sally Field ("Brothers & Sisters") have all found meaningful work on the small screen, and perhaps "Sex and the City" is an interesting trial balloon for mature actresses to demonstrate their box office clout.

Three movies with female leads have been notable successes in 2008. "27 Dresses" (Fox), starring Katherine Heigl from "Grey's Anatomy," debuted to $23 million in January on its way to a domestic cume of $76.8 million. Then came the Digital 3D phenomenon "Hannah Montana/Miley Cyrus: Best of Both Worlds" (Disney), which enjoyed a meteoric $31.1 million opening weekend, finishing with a tween-fueled $65.2 million. Also the all-girl comedy "Baby Mama" (Universal) succeeded last month with a nifty $17.4 million opening, and it is still in the top 10 with a current cume of $53.3 million.

Finding box office hits with women 40+ as the undisputed star (or at least co-lead) are much more rare. This year, the beautiful 40-something Diane Lane headlined Sony's "Untraceable," which managed only $28.6 million, and 60-year-old Diane Keaton was one of 3 leads in Overture's "Mad Money," a disappointment totaling just over $20 million.

Whether it is sexism, ageism, or some combination of the two, mature women are not given many opportunities to succeed as above-the-title stars at the movies.

Glenn Close, who recently won the Golden Globe for her work on F/X's "Damages," has what appears to be the biggest opening ever for a 40+ actress with the 1996 version of "101 Dalmations," which grabbed $33.5 million in its opening frame and went on to generate $136.2 million domestic.

Also, when she was exactly 40, she succeeded as another anti-hero, Alex Forrest, in "Fatal Attraction," a $150 million+ blockbuster. The aforementioned Streep, who earned an Oscar nomination for her riff on Anna Wintour in "The Devil Wears Prada" has the 2nd-best opening with a 40+ female lead.

Jamie Lee Curtis in "Freaky Friday," Shirley MacLaine in "Terms of Endearment" and Katherine Hepburn in "On Golden Pond" also scored $100 million hits past the age of 40. Additionally, Diane Keaton has proved to be a bankable star in her prime with "Something's Gotta Give" ($16 million opening - $124.7 million cume) and "First Wives Club" ($105.4 million cume), which starred fellow 40+s Goldie Hawn and Bette Midler.

Now along come Sarah Jessica Parker, Cynthia Nixon, Kim Cattrall and Kristin Davis, all somewhere north of 40, and they are a regular Fantastic Four (sans superpowers).

Harry Medved from Fandango, reports that hundreds of showtimes for "Sex and the City" are already sold out across America, including a fair number of 12:01am shows on Thursday night.

10,000 moviegoers have been surveyed on the Fandango showtimes and tickets page, and Harry says that 67% plan to attend the movie this weekend with a group of female friends, 88% plan to attend a "Sex and the City" get-together either before or after the show and 68% plan to drink Cosmopolitans at their respective parties.

The latest industry tracking indicates a spectacular opening as well. Un-Aided Awareness among women is at 17%, and "Sex and the City" has 99% Awareness with Females 25 Plus. The movie is tracking slightly better with Females 25 Plus with Definite Interest at 49% compared to 35% with Females Under 25.

In the all-important First Choice column, "Sex and the City" is reportedly at 24% with Total Females and 30% with Females 25 Plus. How many men will wander into the multiplex to check out the these NYC girls this weekend? First Choice among Males for "Sex and the City" is at only 3%.

On Tuesday, I forecasted a $30 million opening for this former New Line property, but I am raising my estimate to the $33 million-$36 million range.

Truthfully, anything over $30 million is a triumph as Females 25 Plus are not notorious opening weekend attendees, but this has the feel of a phenomenon instead of just a movie. And, by Monday morning, Sarah Jessica Parker and friends will likely have the biggest opening ever for 40+ women at the top of the box office marquee.

"Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull" (Paramount) should hold up well on its 2nd weekend with a 3-day of $49 million-$52 million or so. The Steven Spielberg-directed sequel is helped by the fact that both of the new wide releases this week are rated R. That will also help "Iron Man" near or possibly even surpass $275 million domestic with $10 million-$13 million.

"Prince Caspian" (Disney) continues to struggle with unimpressive weekday holds, and I think "ron Man"has a real chance to post a better weekend gross (although "Caspian" will be in that same $10 million-$13 million range).

The other new wide release is "The Strangers" (Rogue), which has a picked up steam thanks to an excellent, though disturbing, TV ad campaign. My sources tell me that the movie has Un-Aided Awareness of 7%, but just a 53% Total Aware. With a 10% First Choice, the slasher pic has a shot at $10 million and a 5th-place finish.