Femmes power 'Sex' to a stunning potential debut weekend of $66.5M

By Steve Mason

FRIDAY 9:15 p.m. (Pacific): This weekend, women are invading America's multiplexes in mind-boggling numbers. �Sex and the City� (Warner Bros), adapted from the hit HBO series that launched a decade ago, has scored one of the most amazing openings in the history of moviegoing.

Starting with 1,100+ sold-out or nearly sold-out midnight previews Thursday, continuing with unthinkably huge matinee business and rampaging through Cosmopolitan-fueled late shows, �Sex and the City� has grabbed a truly remarkable $26.9 million on opening day. How amazing is this performance? My initial final prediction, a healthy $35 million, was slightly more than half of the film's likely three-day take of $66.5 million.

Studio execs all over town are stunned. All week long, the smart money was on a much more modest performance for Michael Patrick King's big screen adaptation. I have seen the movie, and I think it hits the mark squarely, but I am a guy. And so are most of the studio executives in Hollywood. And so are the majority of the critics who wrote mixed-to-scathing reviews of the movie. Studio honchos, mostly middle-aged men, pointed to 2006's �The Devil Wears Prada� and last summer's �Hairspray,� which both opened with about $28 million, and surmised that �Sex� could do a little better. The film industry has dramatically underestimated the box office muscle of the American woman.

�Sex and the City� stars Sarah Jessica Parker, Cynthia Nixon, Kim Cattrall and Kristin Davis, all somewhere north of 40, and they are a regular Fantastic Four (sans superpowers). In fact, Parker and friends have blown away Angelina Jolie in �Lara Croft: Tomb Raider� ($47.7 million opening weekend) to become the all-time No. 1 opening for a movie headlined by a woman.

�Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull� (Paramount) will have to settle for second-place on its second weekend. The Steven Spielberg-directed LucasFilm property managed an estimated $12.25 million on Friday, which will likely translate to a three-day of about $42 million. With a cume in excess of $212 million by Monday morning, �Indy 4� will get to $300 million domestic without breaking a sweat. I am projecting a $314 million cume for Harrison Ford's first Indy film in 19 years, and that should provide more than enough incentive to continue the franchise with Shia LeBeouf.

�The Strangers� (Rogue), an R-rated slasher pic with a disturbing ad campaign, scored a surprise $7.75 million on Friday. Liv Tyler and Scott Speedman have landed in a nice solid hit with $20 million expected by Sunday night.

�Iron Man� (Paramount) has finally overtaken the lagging �The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian� (Disney) in the daily and weekend race. Marvel's first self-financed and self-produced movie grabbed another $3.8 million on Friday, putting it on pace for an excellent $13.8 million. I am now projecting that Robert Downey Jr.'s superhero debut will top out at $307 million domestic. Meanwhile, �Caspian� limped to $3.4 million to start the weekend, and it can expect about $12.6 million for the three-day and a fifth-place finish.

�Sex and the City� and �Indy 4� will have the two best per-theater averages for the weekend. I am tentatively projecting indie release �Caregiver� to finish third in PTA with $9,280 at its single engagement. IFC's �Savage Grace,� starring Julianne Moore, is performing well at 2 locations and seems on track for an $8,669 PTA.� War, Inc.� (First Look), starring John Cusack, is holding well on its two screens with a possible $8,525 PTA for the weekend.