'SATC' down on its heels Saturday but still pumped

By Steve Mason

SUNDAY 9:00 a.m. (Pacific): Warner Bros has told me this morning that "Sex and the City" scored an estimated $17.7 million on Saturday, and the studio is calling for $55.7 million for opening weekend. That marks a 35% drop from Friday-to-Saturday as this two-quadrant phenomenon proved incredibly front-loaded. The truth is that anything more than $30 million for the weekend would have been a triumph.

The Top 2 grossing playdates for "Sex and the City" were both in Manhattan. Regal's E-Walk in Times Square checks in at $195,000 through Saturday followed by AMC's Lincoln Square Theatres with $181,000. The third-best playdate appears to be Pacific's Arclight in Hollywood with $144,000.

Carrie Bradshaw and friends actually finished second to "Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull" (Paramount) on Saturday as the LucasFilm property grabbed $19.84 million. That should translate to a $46 million second weekend and to-date cume of about $216 million.

Even though "SATC's" potential $55.7 million is lower than opening-day enthusiasm led analysts to believe, the number is a game-changer in this business. Hollywood has been cranking out the same teen-fueled tent-pole movies summer after summer with an occasional chick flick like 2006's "The Devil Wears Prada" and last year's "Hairspray" added to the mix. The film business cannot afford to ignore women at the box office when they can rally to create a hit this big.

By Monday morning, "Sex and the City" will be the biggest opening in film history for a movie headlined by a woman, surpassing "Lara Croft: Tomb Raider" starring Angelina Jolie, which scored $47.7 million.

It is also important to note that these are not ingenues. Sarah Jessica Parker, Kristin Davis, Kim Cattrall and Cynthia Nixon are all over 40. To date, the best opening weekend for a movie with a 40+ actress as the true lead was the 1996 version of "101 Dalmations," which featured Glenn Close. That family film grabbed $33.5 million in its opening frame.

Rogue's "The Strangers," starring Scott Speedman and Liv Tyler, has scared up another $7.76 million on Saturday, and the slasher pic is headed for a well-above-expectations $20 million for the weekend. "Iron Man" (Paramount) continues to impress with an estimated $6.51 million Saturday, which will likely translate to $14.8 million and a staggering new cume of $277.43 million. "Narnia: Prince Caspian" (Disney) plodded to just $5.86 million on its 3rd Saturday, and it will wrap the 3-day with about $13.31 million. With a new cume of $111.87 million, this very expensive sequel is a longshot to exceed $140 million domestic.

"Sex and the City" will coast to the best Per Theater Average for the weekend with $17,000+. "U2 3D" from National Geographic, in its 19th week in release, will enjoy a great 3-day PTA of $12,500 or so at 8 locations along with IFC's "Savage Grace," starring Julianne Moore, with about the same PTA on 2 screens. "Indy 4" appears headed for the 4th-best weekend PTA , followed by the Will Ferrell-produced "The Foot Fist Way" (Paramount Vantage) with an estimated $9,375 PTA at 4 locations.