The latest late shift (THR, USA, REU)

By Nancy Tartaglione

As Jay Leno clears out his "Tonight Show" desk this evening and with Conan O'Brien getting ready to settle in his chair, several outlets today take a look at the handover as well as the economic viability of a primetime Leno.

Starting Monday at 11:35pm, O'Brien will segue to the hallowed "Tonight Show" hosting slot, but not before he appears on Leno's last show this evening.

Leno for his part, told USA Today, "I'm glad it's going to Conan. It couldn't go to a better person. We're friends, and it's a really smooth transition."

O'Brien "has the summer to establish himself," The New York Times' Bill Carter, author of "The Late Shift: Letterman, Leno and the Network Battle for the Night," told USA. But, added Carter, O'Brien should not expect to match Leno's ratings. "Conan has a loyal, younger core audience that he can work on expanding."

O�Brien allows, "The show I do on June 1 is likely to be totally different from the one we do six months later�Everything's changing. It's crazy. That's why I'm just going to stick with what makes me smile."

As for Leno, according to Reuters, he recently told reporters, "Do I expect to beat (the opposition) the first week we're up against each other?. Probably not. It would be nice, but I'm a realist. This is the long haul."

Leno will face stiff competition going up against behemoths like the "CSI" franchise over on CBS.

"It is a courageous thing to take an icon on late night and move him into prime time," Dick Lippin, CEO of entertainment and marketing group The Lippin Group, told Reuters.

"With Jay Leno, you have a higher probability of success than with other people. The question is, what will Leno have to do in order to make it appointment television at 10pm?"

The new "Jay Leno Show" will be the first such program to air five nights a week in the fertile advertising ground of US primetime. But, the change will save NBC millions by avoiding production of a costly TV drama.

According to The Hollywood Reporter, advertisers, analysts and most critics agree that NBC has made a savvy business move.

"Economically it makes a lot of sense, because certainly Jay is a lot cheaper to produce than the Monday-through-Friday primetime lineup," Steve Sternberg, executive vp audience analysis for Interpublic's Magna Global, told THR. "And if you think about it, they haven't had a major hit in a while at 10pm."

Leno doesn't necessarily have to beat the "CSI" of primetime. As long as he can come in second or third, it would go along with NBC Universal's overall plan to program for high profit margins but not necessarily high ratings, explains THR.

If he can do so, Leno will earn a salary that could reach $30 million, depending on the ratings. He has a four-year contract, but NBC has an option to cancel after only two years, sources told THR.

However, he does need to provide a strong audience lead-in for the news at 11pm on affiliated stations. As the debacle in Boston demonstrated - when an affiliate balked at airing the "Leno" show - affiliates have been nervous about the change and whether Leno can deliver as well as the big dramas traditionally have done.

Currently, "Tonight Show" advertisers buy based on weekly average ratings. However, for "The Jay Leno Show," NBC has shifted to allow night by night purchases.

"If it works, it's going to fundamentally change primetime television," Larry Gerbrandt, principal in Media Valuation Partners, told THR. "If it doesn't work, they will be faced with replacing not one failed show but five, after having cut back on their program development."

Now the question is how much of Leno's audience will follow him to 10 o'clock, and whether or not he can attract new, younger viewers.

Further, will Leno's audience watch O'Brien? "A lot of Leno's audience is going to be shocked and won't know what to do with Conan," Bob Thompson, Syracuse University professor of television and popular culture, told THR. "The question is whether Conan will continue to do what he does so well -- the Conan of the masturbating bear, wonder dog and all that -- or will he do what Letterman did (when he moved to 11:30pm), which is to tone down his act for the room. The question would be, 'Is Conan as good when he's not being this sort of Salvador Dali-esque character as he has done so brilliantly in his late-night spot?' "

O'Brien's new "Tonight Show" will be set on a studio lot a short drive from its longtime digs and, says USA, will bear quirky hallmarks including a band backdrop featuring the Empire State Building planted in the Hollywood hills and an art deco frieze in which is hidden a drawing of an Arby's counter jockey.

"My set needs to acknowledge this is a 60-year franchise," O'Brien told USA. "It needs to be beautiful and elegant. Jerry Seinfeld once said to me, 'The Tonight Show should always feel like the headquarters for show business.' "

Sternberg says whatever the outcome, "There's not much downside for NBC because this makes economic sense. This is a bold experiment, but still only an experiment. If it doesn't work, they just go back to doing something else in a couple of years."

The latest late shift (THR, USA, REU)

By Nancy Tartaglione

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