UPDATED:'SNAKES' OVERHYPED AT B.O... DISAPPOINTS WITH $15.3M OPENING

By Tom Tapp

MONDAY UPDATE:

New Line's "Snakes on a Plane" has disappointed those who ventured a possible $30M weekend box office number (Variety), those who gave them credence (HW included) and even those who conservatively estimated a high teens opening.

Says Variety:

After months of buzz on the Internet and in the media, along with weeks of speculation over how that buzz would translate into B.O., "Snakes on a Plane" opened to $15.3 million. An estimated $1.4 million of that came from shows at 10 p.m. Thursday night.

Gross is well below predictions at New Line and among industry folk that the hype could translate into a bow somewhere in the 20 or perhaps even 30 millions.

Though "Snakes" was the big story going into the weekend, other pics mattered in their own right. "World Trade Center" and "Talladega Nights" held up nicely, while "Little Miss Sunshine" stayed strong as it started its move into wide release.

"Snakes" hype aside, it's a respectable enough opening given the pic's estimated budget in the mid-30s. New Line still has a good shot at coming out in the black, especially if the cult following translates into big homevideo sales. FX already bought the exclusive cable rights for about 12% of the domestic gross (Daily Variety, July 26).

Though the mini-major didn't release exit polling data, it seems the pic didn't expand far beyond the core Net-savvy young male aud that has been aware of the pic for months.

Nikki Finke and Hollywood Elsewhere had Saturday updates skewering the Friday pundits. Movie City News has a chart tracking the Friday guesses vs. Sunday reality.

Hollywood Elsewhere:

Five demerits each to Box Office Guru, Coming Soon and EW for predicting Snakes on a Plane's weekend grosses in the $30 million range ($28 million, $30.8 million and $31 million respectively) when one Saturday morning prognosis is eyeballing a Sunday-night figure of $15,322,000. New Line's airborne reptile thriller took in $6,257,000 on Friday, but that figure includes the Thursday night showings also. A dip is expected today (the hard-cores went to see Snakes on Thursday and Friday nights -- R-rated, young-male fare always drops off on Saturday) so there's a chance it may total out a bit south of $15 million. The Hot Button predicted $22 million, H'wood Reporter said "lows 20s to low 30s" and Box Office Mojo predicted $24 million -- and they all have to stay after class and clean the blackboards. Yesterday I wrote that with Snakes playing in roughly 2555 theatres, "Variety's forecast of a weekend total in the mid to high teens seems more likely than a Sunday-night tally in the 20s, much less the 30s. I still say mid teens."

FRIDAY'S STORY:

New Line's "Snakes on a Plane" is set to land at theaters this weekend and, as Variety says, "After over six months of parody trailers, blog debates and mainstream press articles about the online hype, New Line will find out what it all means for the bottom line as "Snakes on a Plane" opens this weekend."

Trade says the pic is tracking "like a normal late-summer horror film." That means an opening in the high teens. The Wall Street Journal notes that the number one film in the third week of August has averaged $24 million over the past five years. Those numbers could rise toward the 30s if the buzz really kicks in, though. Which makes "Snakes" "something of a suspense thriller for Hollywood insiders," according to WSJ.

The Journal:

"This one's in uncharted territory because it's somewhat of an unprecedented marketing campaign," says Paul Dergarabedian, president of Exhibitor Relations Co., a film-industry research firm that tallies box-office totals. "One school of thought is it could break box-office records. The other is that it won't live up to the hype."

One cause for concern at New Line: A major audience-tracking survey earlier this week said awareness of "Snakes" among potential moviegoers was high, but far fewer people in that sample expressed a definite interest in seeing the movie. "It's driving everybody crazy," says Russell Schwartz, president of domestic marketing at New Line. "It may not do well. But I suspect this is a rather difficult movie to track."

VAR:

One good sign for "Snakes": Intense exhibitor interest helped New Line book it at 3,555 playdates, very wide for a horror film.

Few doubt that theaters will be packed with the faithful -- mostly young males and some older males -- on Friday and for latenight shows Thursday.

Bigger question is whether good word of mouth will spread after hardcore fans finally get to see the film, convincing a broader aud that "Snakes" is more than an Internet oddity.

Variety also notes that new Line did not make the film available for review, but word from last night's premiere at The Chinese has already started leaking out.

Risky Biz:

...the movie actually manages to deliver on what you would hope a movie called Snakes on a Plane would deliver. As one person said, "It's the Showgirls of action thrillers." It is unbelievable, it's ridiculous, it's cheesy, it's hilarious,... and the audience ate it up. They whooped when a snake chows down on a naked breast. They cheered when a one-eyed snake gets devoured by another with fangs. They clapped and howled when snakes bite eyes, slither down passengers throats, and eat a pet chihuahua. And when Sam Jackson says the line that we all know he says, the audience went wild.

Credit goes to Jackson, who delivers his lines, many of which had audience members in stitches, with gusto. And thank heavens for that R-rating. The movie would be nothing without the added scenes of sex and gore.

Risky's Ann Thompson also notes the film is being rated 83% fresh at Rotten Tomatoes. And the Internet is pretty much confirming that.

Ain't It Cool News:

This film isn�t a movie for cold analysis. If you do, you�ll pick apart things like� well, I don�t fucking care. There�s crazy shit in this movie, the sort of shit that practical, logical and even sane people will fucking call bullshit on. But ya know what? The film is called SNAKES ON A PLANE. It is fucking ridiculous � but I paid to see fucking SNAKES ON A PLANE and that�s the movie we saw tonight.

This is Sam Jackson�s movie. He doesn�t play it a fucking badass. Well, he kinda does. But there�s points in this movie � where the snakes really fucking unsettle his badass ass. When he shouts out the immortal line� it�s pretty much the straw that breaks his hump. He seriously has had it with mutherfucking snakes on his mutherfucking plane. And what he does after that line� is mutherfucking insane and awesome.

Cinematical:

Well, the flick's a big sloppy mess. Honestly. It's shot blandly and cut together sloppily; the dialogue is ripe and the characters are simps; the filler (plot) material that pops up between the semi-frequent snake attacks is actually quite snooze-worthy; most of the FX are lame; there's no third act ... I could go on with the foibles. But I'd be lying if I said that Snakes on a Plane doesn't get three kinds of slickly exciting once those damn snakes start snappin'. Judged on the simplest merit system, Snakes on a Plane delivers precisely what its pulpy title promises -- but not a whole lot more.

UPDATE: Reuters has sent an intrepid reporter down to interview the ravening masses as they exit theaters and their reaction is generally positive, as well.

Reuters:

"It was just so ridiculous it was a good movie," said Colin Cowes, 15, from Minnesota, after seeing a morning screening in New York on Friday. "I went and saw it because I saw an ad for it on the Internet. Definitely the title got me in because it just sounds so random and stupid."

Natasha Sokolov, 33, said she came to see the movie because it starred Jackson.

"I'm not sure that's exactly a movie I would regularly see though. It was scary, fun, exciting. It was just a little piece of entertainment, nothing serious," she said.

Marcus Levy, 29, of New England, said it was action-packed. "I think at first it was the actual preview that got me interested and then the title obviously explains everything. I despise snakes," he said. "It was actually entertaining."

UPDATED:'SNAKES' OVERHYPED AT B.O... DISAPPOINTS WITH $15.3M OPENING

By Tom Tapp

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