October 31, 2006

The Season: 'Sunshine' screener first out of the box...a smart move in a bad year or too much too early?

By Pete Hammond

�This year is starting to make last year look like 1939.�

So says an Oscar player who is so underwhelmed by what he�s seeing and hearing about this season�s awards crop that he�s wondering how they are going to come up with five genuine candidates for Best Picture.

Of course back in 1939, generally considered by film historians to be the movie industry�s beacon year, they had ten nominees and those included "Gone With The Wind," "The Wizard Of Oz," "Mr. Smith Goes To Washington" and "Stagecoach."

One movie perhaps feeling this void is July 26th release "Little Miss Sunshine" which, arriving mid-week in a yellow envelope and yellow case, became the first screener sent to awards voters.

With a $50 plus million gross to date and rapturous reviews, will this become the latest and greatest Sundance acquisition to nab a Best Picture nod? Could happen, especially with it�s high profile mid-December DVD launch. But its only likely in the event the most anticipated, star-laden year-end releases such as "The Good Shepherd," "The Good German," "Blood Diamond" and "Dreamgirls" tank.

Most analysts keep citing these titles as likely nominees and potential winners SIGHT UNSEEN. This is a dangerous game because if we could correctly predict �obvious� nominees this early then "Angela�s Ashes," "The Crucible," "The Majestic" and "The Shipping News" would all be laden with Oscar gold today.

In 2001, Harvey Weinstein was almost orgasmic over the prospect of gold statues for "Shipping News." Then the movie opened. Or didn�t.

"News" was shipped out and the little Sundance acquisition, "In The Bedroom," became Harvey�s torch bearer that year nabbing five nominations including Best Picture.

Of course even that 2001 Thanksgiving release �peaked� too early as far as �sure thing� Best Actress winner Sissy Spacek was concerned. Late December entry Halle Berry swooped in and nabbed the Oscar for "Monster�s Ball," proving nobody knows nothing - at least in October.

That's true this week as screenings for such highly touted contenders as Clint Eastwood�s "Flags Of Our Fathers," Christopher Nolan�s "The Prestige," "Running With Scissors" and others are sparking lots of awards talk but not the kind of broad consensus that makes you comfortable enough to predict away. And many producers who might benefit from this kind of hype know it's not too cool to peak on Columbus Day...

Perhaps this is why one mover and shaker behind "Flags" told us this week they DON�T want to be on ANYONE�S Oscar lists. "Let the voters find us themselves,� he pleaded.

The sentiment echoed the concerns of "Dreamgirls' " awards saavy writer/director Bill Condon last spring when he found himself atop early 2006 prediction charts even as he was in the midst of production.

And of course just mention the prospect of a "Departed" Best Director Oscar to Martin Scorsese�s handlers right now and you�re liable to get your hand chopped off and used as a prop in his next film.

SCREENING THE ACADEMY

One favorite game this time of year is watching crystal ballers trying to gauge reactions at �official� Academy screenings. Weighing applause during one film�s end credits vs. another's is becoming sport in this town.

Plants in the audience tell us "The Departed�s" Saturday afternoon unspooling was packed and extremely well received despite "a few walkouts." Two voting members, both women, told us they �loved� the film, a good sign for Martin Scorsese�s bloody return to form.

Sunday night�s "Little Children" screening drew about 350 to the Goldwyn Theatre and mixed to good reaction for Todd Field�s highly praised and complex second feature (following the aforementioned "In The Bedroom").

One member told me she walked out of "Shortbus" at Sunday afternoon�s screening, �not because of the sex, but because it wasn�t good sex�. Okay.

Previous week�s Academy fare included an overwhelmingly positive reaction and turnout for "The Queen" with �heavy applause� when Helen Mirren�s and Michael Sheen�s names appeared on screen as well as �good� response to the less-well-attended "The Last King Of Scotland," with Forest Whitaker�s Idi Amin being the subject of the talk heard afterward in the lobby.

So far though we haven�t heard a single member buzzing about last Saturday night�s feature attraction at the Academy, The Weinstein Company�s "Alex Rider: Operation Stormbreaker."

But hey, there�s still time, Harvey. The Season�s young.

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