The Season: As films like "Flags" flag at the B.O., does it matter to their Oscar chances?

By Pete Hammond

At the AFI Film Fest's "Bobby" opening last night, applause was so enthusiastic it was hard to hear the rousing just recorded end credits song co-written by Bryan Adams and duetted by Aretha Franklin and Mary J. Blige.

Harvey Weinstein is clearly hoping AFI�s track record of launching award biggies continues with �Bobby�. He�s certainly proud of the film, and who knows, with the Academy�s recent predilection toward human dramas (�Crash�, �Million Dollar Baby�), the Oscar maestro just might get his wish.

Some predict the nomination chances for the November 17th release will depend heavily on its box office success. In fact, award season analysts increasingly are equating dollars and statues.

Several articles detailing the surprise box office muscle of Martin Scorsese�s �The Departed� have mentioned that its gross will lead to a now almost certain Best Picture nomination.

Its B.O. is near $100 million. Now the story goes if it gets to $150 million it could win. Before "The Departed" opened to big numbers NO ONE was saying that.

Conversely this week many pundits immediately wrote off the chances of Focus Features well-reviewed apartheid drama, �Catch A Fire� after a dismal $2 million dollar opening in over 1300 theatres.

The same company�s other award hopeful, the September entry �Hollywoodland� also �underperformed�. You can see it now at the $3 house on Fairfax.

To its credit, Focus is undeterred and continues to support both films particularly in acting categories. Full page for your consideration ads appeared in the LA Times Envelope newspaper supplement Wednesday and casts of both films are still busily promoting the movies on the Q&A; circuit. Keeping these kind of contenders alive as their presence in theatres fades becomes the key challenge.

There were also media storm clouds forming over the Clint Eastwood war epic, �Flags Of Our Fathers� this week, at least according to those same pundits who claim its less-than-boffo B.O. take will cost the former �sure thing� a slot in the Best Picture race.

�Last King Of Scotland� is another contender slow to go at the B.O. Will its modest bounty be enough to land Forest Whitaker a nod?

And what about the critically acclaimed, relatively little-seen �Little Children�?

We naively thought/hoped awards were supposed to be about artistic achievement but, in the minds of many, the Academy is really just a microcosm of the ticket buying public.

Audiences didn�t show for �Catch A Fire� and neither did Academy members at it�s official screening the weekend before opening (only a paltry 100 turned out). Those who did see the film apparently liked it a lot but the stench of box office failure may be hard to overcome.

Or not.

Here are just some of the B.O.-challenged films that earned major category Oscar attention in the past decade: �Transamerica�, �Junebug�, �Mulholland Drive�, �The Contender�, �Shadow Of The Vampire�, �Requiem For A Dream�, �Before Night Falls�, �The Straight Story�, �Sweet And Lowdown�, �Afterglow�, �I Am Sam�.

Well, you get the picture.

None of these had people beating down the doors of the multi-plex, but that sad fact ultimately didn�t hurt their Oscar profiles.

And consider Oscar winning movies like �Affliction�, �Gods And Monsters�, �Iris� and �Pollock�. Their combined domestic take doesn�t even approach last weekend�s 3-day for �Saw III�.

Fortunately for filmmakers the practice of sending screeners has a tendency to level the playing field.

Since the Academy doesn�t allow studios to print a film�s gross on the screener boxes they send to the membership (at least not yet) everyone is equal in the mail box. All the voter gets is the movie.

And despite some domestic totals that would not even cover the cost of a Star Waggon, there is evidence to suggest diligent industryites look at the achievement, not the bottom line.

So there is still hope, brother, as The Season counts its pennies.